A noticeable trend is emerging in the Canadian real estate market: following the Bank of Canada’s initial rate cut, there has been an increase in home sales due to improved affordability for buyers, although still below the long-term average.
While price recovery remains elusive, sales volume saw a 1.3% month-over-month increase in August, reaching its highest level since January 2020.
Simultaneously, the influx of new listings continues to grow, with new listings rising for the fourth consecutive month. This could potentially lead the market into a buyer’s market territory where supply surpasses demand.
With potential future rate cuts expected through 2025, there is cautious optimism among prospective buyers and investors.
Newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offset GTA decline
Despite the rise in sales, the market remains stagnant as many buyers await improved affordability before committing to purchases.
The number of newly listed properties increased by 1.1% month-over-month in August, with around 177,450 properties for sale — a rise of 18.8% from the previous year but still below historical averages.
Calgary saw a boost in new listings for the second consecutive month, with Edmonton also experiencing an increase, counterbalancing the decline in the GTA.
Consistent, stable increase in sales-to-new-listings
The national sales-to-new listing ratio edged up to 53%, matching the record set in April. We are far from reaching our highest average of sales-to-new listings achieved in December 2023 at 81%.
Since the increase from 46% in January to 52% in February, we have maintained relatively stable figures. Matching the average from April 2024 is a noteworthy development.
Prices
Following a record high price in Canada in 2022, the market swiftly retreated. Since then, there has been minimal fluctuation in prices.
Significant fluctuation in GTA condominiums
Condominium apartments in the Toronto area are experiencing significant fluctuations, with a pullback from an all-time high price and subsequent bounces.
Source: x.com/Tablesalt13/
The outlook for 2025 appears unfavorable, potentially nearing the 350 mark — a significant drop from around 450 in January 2022.
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