Tesla (TSLA) reports second-quarter global vehicle deliveries on Tuesday with analysts expecting the total to come in under the current consensus. However, as EV demand has slowed in 2024 and AI fever dominates the market, some observers are more focused on Tesla’s Q2 energy storage numbers. TSLA shares angled higher early Monday.

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Analysts, as of Monday, predict global second-quarter Tesla deliveries will total 436,000 vehicles, according to FactSet. The consensus view at the end of May called for 448,000 deliveries. It has dropped 3% since then.

The current estimate would be down 6.5% compared to last year’s 466,140 deliveries. But it would be a 13% increase compared to Q1.

Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The company reported in early April that global first-quarter deliveries totaled 386,810, undercutting even the lowest estimates and marking the lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in Q2 2022.

However, many analysts believe Tesla deliveries will come in below 436,000. On Friday, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote deliveries should approach that consensus number. He added that “whisper numbers” are in the 415,000-420,000 range.

Last week, New Street said it expects Tesla to deliver 425,000 units in Q2. Meanwhile, RBC Capital lowered its Tesla deliveries to 410,000 in Q2, down 23% from the firm’s prior estimate of 533,000 vehicles.

Barclays also released a Q2 estimate of 415,000 units for Tesla last week. The firm said it believes this estimate is “somewhat in line with more muted buyside expectations” and suspects the final Tesla-compiled consensus estimates will end up lower.

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Tesla stock gained 3.3% to 204.50 during market action on Monday. On Friday, TSLA edged up 0.2% to 197.88.

What About Tesla Energy?

Along with global delivery numbers, Tesla also reports Tuesday how much energy storage it deployed in the second quarter. The company deployed 4,053 megawatt-hours (MWh) in Q1, an all-time high.

Tesla currently offers solar panels and a solar roof, along with powerwalls for energy storage. On the commercial side, Tesla also offers the “megapack.”

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s high-profile auto analyst, wrote last week that as generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) increases energy demand, Tesla’s energy business could be “uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electrical grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Jonas currently values Tesla Energy at $36 per Tesla share, or around $130 billion.

The analyst projects Tesla Energy will generate around $7 billion in revenue this year, a 20% increase compared to 2023. Jonas also projects Tesla Energy margins will surpass the company’s auto margins in 2024.

Chief Executive Elon Musk said during Tesla’s June 13 shareholder meeting that the company is “tracking” toward 200%-300% year-over-year growth in energy storage and deployment of stationery pack.

Looking Ahead To Autonomy And Robotaxi

Meanwhile, Ives said Friday he is already focused on the second half of 2024 and is eying demand recovery, vehicle price stabilization and next month’s “robotaxi” reveal.

“We believe the Aug. 8 robotaxi day will be a key historical moment for the Tesla story that we see as a near-term catalyst,” Ives wrote.

“The rubber meets the road as the Street anticipates Aug. 8 as a key linchpin day for the Tesla story,” he added. “While delivery numbers next week are very important the Street is starting to focus on the next growth driver at Tesla now forming with the worst of the demand doldrums in the rearview mirror.”

Tesla Stock Performance

Last week, Tesla stock jumped 8.1% to 197.88, breaking out from a 191.08 handle buy point, according to MarketSurge chart analysis. The buy range extends to 200.63.

The stock hit resistance at the 40-week line on Friday, but closed higher. In June, shares gained more than 11%.

Tesla has rallied since reporting first-quarter earnings and revenue on April 23, finding support just above its 50-day moving average.

However, Tesla stock is still below a declining 200-day moving average.

Tesla shareholders recently voted in favor of giving Musk his 2018 $56 billion pay package and reincorporating the EV giant in Texas, moving it from Delaware.

With the company’s annual meeting in the rearview mirror, analysts are looking to Tesla’s second-quarter earnings in mid-July. The company will also unveil its robotaxi on Aug. 8.

Tesla stock ranks sixth in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 56 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares have a 26 Relative Strength Rating and a 62 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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