Affordable no longer: Condo prices may soar to $1 million in the next ten years

In the next ten years, average condo prices in major Canadian cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Halifax are predicted to surpass $1 million.

Despite condos being seen as a more affordable entry point into the housing market, data analysis from Zoocasa suggests that this affordability advantage may be diminishing.

Ontario dominates the forecast

Zoocasa’s projections show that Ontario will lead in these high-priced markets, with cities like Toronto, London, and Hamilton expected to reach the million-dollar mark. The Atlantic region, particularly Halifax, is also experiencing significant growth and may join the million-dollar markets by 2031.

Halifax, traditionally considered more affordable than Ontario or British Columbia, has seen rapid price increases due to high demand, limited inventory, and a growing population.

The methodology

Zoocasa’s forecast is based on data from CREA, using the average annual growth rate in median condo prices from 2019 to 2024 as the foundation for predictions. This growth rate is applied each year to the most recent price, with each subsequent year’s price serving as the base for the next calculation. This approach assumes that current trends, including economic conditions and market demand, will continue steadily.

For instance, Halifax condo prices rose by 68.4% over five years, going from $247,608 in 2019 to $462,650 in October 2024—an average annual increase of 13.68%. Using this trend, Zoocasa predicts that Halifax condos will average over $1 million by 2031.

Urban centers lead the charge

Toronto and Vancouver, as Canada’s primary housing market leaders, are anticipated to reach the $1 million average even sooner. Vancouver is projected to achieve this milestone by 2030, while Toronto is expected to follow in 2031.

Between 2019 and 2024, Toronto’s average condo price increased from $504,758 to $671,980, representing a 33% rise. Vancouver’s condo prices also went up by 27% during the same period, climbing from $605,950 to $768,780.

Longer timelines in other markets

While many urban centers are on track to hit the $1 million milestone within 10 to 20 years, some regions have a longer journey ahead, such as:

• Calgary: With a robust job market and population growth, Calgary is forecasted to reach $1 million by 2041.
• Saskatoon: This prairie city is expected to achieve the milestone by 2046, reflecting steady but slower growth.
• Regina and Winnipeg: These markets have the longest timelines, with projections extending to 2085 and 2081, respectively.

Source: Zoocasa