Calgary’s housing market will likely maintain its momentum through 2025, with sales expected 20 per ent above long-term trends, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) annual forecast. While population growth and easing lending rates are expected to fuel demand, an influx of new supply will bring balance and temper price growth.
“While the market is expected to be more balanced than in recent years, significant economic risks—such as potential tariffs—could impact activity,” says CREB’s Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie These risks will be crucial to watch as we navigate through 2025.”
Sales stable
Similar to 2024, CREB projects over 26,000 homes will be sold this year, with sales in the detached market forecasted to reach 12,600 units.
Similar to other large markets, the condo market faces headwinds. Rising rental vacancies, fueled by an influx of new rental completions, are expected to temper demand for apartments, resulting in a projected 3.5 per cent decline in sales, and a 1.8 per cent drop increase in price.
Balancing supply and prices
A leading trend for 2025 will be the impact of Calgary’s record-breaking construction activity. By the end of 2024, over 22,500 new homes had been built—half of them apartments. This increased supply has already begun to ease pressures on both sale prices and rent.
Looking ahead, CREB expects the new housing to help stabilize the market. Citywide price growth is forecasted to slow to 3 per cent, down from 2024’s 7 per cent gain. But CREB says to expect varied price trends.
Lower-priced homes are expected to see steeper increases due to demand and limited supply, while higher-priced homes may face softer growth amid increased competition from newly built units.
Economic and population trends
Alberta’s economy continues to support Calgary’s housing market. Investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing and artificial intelligence are projected to sustain economic growth, even as concerns about potential U.S. tariffs temper optimism. Alberta is forecasted to lead Canada in growth in 2025, with Calgary’s population expected to grow at a rate faster than the provincial average.
Migration levels—both interprovincial and international—will likely ease in 2025 compared to record highs in previous years. Despite this slowdown, population gains are likely to remain a key driver of housing demand.
CREB highlights economic risks such as potential U.S. tariffs and shifting federal energy policies, which could dampen consumer confidence and investment. On the upside, a tariff-free scenario could strengthen Alberta’s economy, leading to higher migration and housing activity than currently forecasted.
Easing lending rates offer more upside potential. Lower borrowing costs could bring more first-time buyers and support higher-than-expected sales, particularly in the detached and semi-detached markets.
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