RFK Jr. may continue to discourage childhood vaccinations as rates decline in the U.S.

The nation’s new top health official could further erode already falling U.S. vaccination rates against once-common childhood diseases, a development that comes as a growing measles outbreak has led to the first U.S. death from the disease in a decade.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, now leads the Department of Health and Human Services and wields enormous power over the federal agencies that regulate vaccines and set shot recommendations. 

Kennedy tried to distance himself from his previous views during his Senate confirmation hearings, claiming that he isn’t “anti-vaccine” and would not make it “difficult or discourage people from taking” routine shots for measles and polio. 

But some health policy experts said his early moves as HHS Secretary are concerning and suggest that he could undermine immunizations in other, less direct ways, which could increase the risk of children catching preventable diseases.

“The steps that he’s taken so far seem to be in line with his views of skepticism about vaccines and their safety, of wanting to allow for parents to not get their children vaccinated. It’s all things he’s championed,” said Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy at KFF. “There might be more dominoes to fall coming.”

Kennedy has said he will review the childhood vaccination schedule, and is reportedly preparing to remove and replace members of external committees that advise the government on vaccine approvals and other key public health decisions, among other efforts. Some experts said he could also amplify data highlighting the risks of vaccines, promote unfounded claims about shots and undermine legal protections for vaccine makers. 

If rates drop even more, there could be major consequences, such as renewed outbreaks of vaccine-preventable illnesses in certain communities.

“Within the next couple of years, we could see major drops in childhood vaccination rates,” Lawrence Gostin, professor of public health law at Georgetown University, told CNBC. “He has all the powers he needs to sow public distrust in vaccines. He has a history of doing that and he has a desire to do it.”

“This could lead to significant outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases throughout America, with the disproportionate impact on red states that President Trump carried in the 2024 election,” Gostin added. 

Kennedy has a long track record of making misleading and false statements about the safety of shots. He has claimed they are linked to autism despite decades of studies that debunk that association. Kennedy is also the founder of the nonprofit Children’s Health Defense, the most well-funded anti-vaccine organization in the U.S. In a government ethics agreement in January, he said he stopped serving as chairman or chief legal counsel for the organization as of December.

But vaccines have saved the lives of more than 1.1 million children in the U.S. and saved Americans $540 billion in direct health-care costs over the last three decades, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention research released in August.

States and local jurisdictions set vaccine requirements for school children, but the federal government has a longstanding system for approving and recommending shots for the public. That includes creating the childhood vaccination schedule, which recommends when children should receive certain shots. It’s used by states, pediatricians and parents. 

The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Childhood vaccinations and the state requirements in place for them have been “one of the greatest public health success stories” in the U.S., allowing the country to eliminate many diseases that people once feared, such as polio, according to William Moss, professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Rates stayed relatively steady for nearly a decade before the Covid pandemic, as about 95% of kindergarten children were up to date with all state required vaccines, Moss said. That includes separate shots for polio and varicella, a vaccine for measles, mumps, and rubella – called MMR – as well as a jab that protects against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis.

But the share of kindergarten children who are up to date on their vaccinations has dipped since the pandemic, according to data collected and aggregated annually by the CDC from state and local immunization programs. Less than 93% of kindergarteners had received all state required vaccines in the 2023-2024 school year, data shows.

Exemptions from school vaccination requirements, particularly non-medical exemptions, have also increased, according to the CDC. The share of U.S. children claiming an exemption from…