The luxury housing market in Canada stabilized during the third quarter of this year, with Toronto and Vancouver experiencing moderate growth. The impact of population growth and lower mortgage rates offset the effects of a slowing economy and fluctuating consumer confidence.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Fall 2024 State of Luxury Report, the luxury condominium markets in Toronto and Vancouver have shifted towards buyers. Supply exceeds demand, leading to stabilized prices.
Toronto: Modest gains in luxury single-family homes
In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), luxury real estate sales over $4 million remained steady, with a 3.0 per cent year-over-year increase between July and August 2024. Sales of single-family homes priced over $4 million saw a 4.0 per cent rise, while luxury condominium sales decreased by 25 per cent compared to last year.
Data from September showed a continued trend, with residential sales over $4 million in the GTA increasing by 9.0 per cent year-over-year. However, luxury condominium sales remained unchanged compared to last year.
Vancouver: Market cools amid election uncertainty
Vancouver’s luxury real estate market experienced softer sales in Q3 2024. Sales of homes priced over $4 million decreased by 13 per cent compared to summer 2023 levels, while single-family home sales dropped by 16 per cent. Consumer uncertainty surrounding the upcoming provincial election contributed to the decline.
In September, Vancouver’s luxury market saw a significant 52 per cent drop in sales of homes priced over $4 million, with no luxury condominium sales recorded. Overall residential sales over $1 million were down by 31 per cent year-over-year.
Montreal: Luxury market strengthens
Montreal’s top-tier real estate market witnessed significant growth, with sales over $1 million increasing by 15 per cent in Q3 2024 compared to the same period last year. Although sales of homes over $4 million were lower than last year, the market remains strong heading into fall, with September residential sales over $1 million surging by 83 per cent year-over-year.
Calgary: Leading the luxury market surge
Calgary continues to outperform other major Canadian cities, driven by population growth and strong demand. Luxury sales over $1 million rose by 31 per cent year-over-year in Q3 2024, with the market poised for further growth as sales increased by 15 per cent in September, including two properties sold for over $4 million.
Favourable conditions for buyers
Sotheby’s president and CEO, Don Kottick, acknowledges that buyers are experiencing some of the most favorable conditions in years as listings of top-tier properties increase and housing prices stabilize. While the market is expected to remain stable in the short term, Kottick cautions that population growth and rising building costs will continue to drive competition for luxury properties in the future.
“This trend is particularly noticeable in the once highly competitive markets of Vancouver and Toronto, as well as in the luxury condominium sector,” Kottick emphasizes. “Over the long term, there is no doubt that population growth will intensify competition for housing… There is an opportunity to take advantage of the favorable homebuying conditions currently present.”
Kottick also points out that the collective impact of interest rate cuts has influenced market sentiment, boosting confidence and encouraging transactions. If further rate cuts occur before the end of the year, luxury home sales could see a significant increase.
Review the full report, including detailed findings, here.
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