A “Keep America Great” hat tops off a Christmas tree at a “Merry Christmas” rally hosted by President Donald Trump at the Kellogg Arena in Battle Creek, Michigan, Dec. 18, 2019.
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Black Friday is poised to take on a new tint of red, white and blue this year after an election that many say was won and lost on consumer sentiment and the economy.
CNBC analyzed shipping trends in red and blue states and spoke with shoppers in Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina, and Virginia to better understand how the 2024 presidential election results could influence the holiday shopping season.
People who voted for President-elect Donald Trump were overwhelmingly positive about the future of the economy, while supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris were more pessimistic, concerned that the incoming president’s policies could make things harder on the middle class. In a world where sentiment drives purchasing decisions, these differences in opinion could shape how much people end up spending this holiday season.
For example, Harris voter Amanda Davila, a 30-year-old New York City educator, told CNBC she’s planning to spend less on the holidays this year and is “trying to be more cautious” about spending in the leadup to Trump taking office in January.
“I’m worried about my own student loans and whether things will be taken out of forbearance, how much I’m going to be owing if the SAVE Plan [for student loan repayment] goes away and things like that,” said Davila. “It’s very hard being a millennial and having to worry about buying a house, affording groceries, rent, all that stuff. With our income, it’s not enough for everything these days.”
Meanwhile, Trump voter Armando Duarte, a 62-year-old retired utility worker from Fort Lee, New Jersey, told CNBC he’s feeling a lot better about the holiday shopping season since Trump won.
“I’m optimistic that people are going to feel a little bit more encouraged to spend because they may feel that the economy might be on the mend and coming back,” said Duarte. “I think things are going to really pick up for the better … I think that inflation is going to come down. Jobs are good, but they’re going to get a lot better, and hopefully wages are going to go up, and people are going to be able to afford to just basically live.”
In the months before the 2024 election, retailers fretted over whether it would hurt sales and the all-important holiday shopping season, which was already facing a bleak outlook due to the shortened time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, among other challenges. Many companies issued cautious guidance for the back half of the year, in part over concerns that the election would distract consumers from shopping or a drawn-out election certification process would lead to unrest and dampen sales.
However, now that Trump has won, it appears the election result could boost sales — at least in many parts of the country — because his supporters largely believe that economic conditions will improve under his direction. If people are feeling better about the economy, it means they’ll likely spend more, too, experts said.
“If they feel optimistic about what comes ahead, then they are willing to spend more, even if it is on a credit card, knowing or expecting that they’re going to have the money to then pay it off,” said Meir Statman, an expert in behavioral finance and a professor at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business. “So the general optimism of Republicans, on the whole, is likely to affect their spending. We know that sentiment generally affects what people do, including spending, and conversely, it might depress, of course, the sentiment of Democrats, and in all likelihood, negatively affect their spending.”
The way some Americans were shopping online in the aftermath of the election bolsters that argument.
Shipping data gathered by e-commerce logistics provider Grip, which ships billions in merchandise across the country every year and specializes in the delivery of perishable goods, shows different shipping patterns in blue and red states. The firm examined the total number of packages it sent in the two months before the election and what percentage went to each state, and how that changed in the two weeks after the election.
In GOP-won states, shipping volumes increased by 50.4% after the election, while Democrat-won states saw volumes decrease by an average of 11.2%. Only two blue states — Illinois and Minnesota — saw shipping volumes increase after the election, while all others saw rates fall.
“Our data shows how major events like elections can significantly impact consumer sentiment, driving changes in eCommerce shopping behavior and logistics patterns,” Grip’s CEO Juan Meisel told CNBC. “After this year’s election, we saw significant shifts in spending activity, with some regions experiencing increased volumes as consumer confidence surged, while others…
Source link
This article was complied by AI and NOT reviewed by human. More information can be found in our Terms and Conditions.
